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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">transplantologiya</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Трансплантология</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Transplantologiya. The Russian Journal of Transplantation</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2074-0506</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2542-0909</issn><publisher><publisher-name>IPO Association of Transplantologists</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23873/2074-0506-2023-15-3-312-333</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">transplantologiya-792</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ВОПРОСЫ ТРАНСПЛАНТОЛОГИИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ACTUAL ISSUES OF TRANSPLANTATION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Сравнительный анализ моделей, прогнозирующих риски раннего неблагоприятного исхода трансплантации печени от посмертного донора: ретроспективное одноцентровое исследование</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Comparative analysis of models predicting the risks of early poor outcome of deceased-donor liver transplantation: a retrospective single-center study</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1561-6268</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сушков</surname><given-names>А. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sushkov</surname><given-names>A. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Александр Игоревич Сушков, канд. мед. наук, заведующий лабораторией новых хирургических технологий</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexander I. Sushkov, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of Laboratory of New Surgical Technologies</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sushkov.transpl@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6558-7143</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Попов</surname><given-names>М. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Popov</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Максим Васильевич Попов, канд. мед. наук, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории новых хирургических технологий, врач-хирург отделения рентгенохирургических методов диагностики и лечения</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Maxim V. Popov, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Senior Researcher, Laboratory of New Surgical Technologies; Surgeon, Department of X-ray Surgical Methods of Diagnostics and Treatment</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3171-6621</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Рудаков</surname><given-names>В. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Rudakov</surname><given-names>V. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Сергеевич Рудаков, канд. мед. наук, врач-хирург хирургического отделения по координации донорства органов и (или) тканей человека</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir S. Rudakov, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Surgeon, Surgical Department for the Coordination of Donation of Organs and (or) Human Tissues</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2274-6204</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Светлакова</surname><given-names>Д. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Svetlakova</surname><given-names>D. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дарья Сергеевна Светлакова, младший научный сотрудник лаборатории новых хирургических технологий, врач-хирург хирургического отделения по координации донорства органов и (или) тканей человека</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Daria S. Svetlakova, Junior Researcher, Laboratory of New Surgical Technologies; Surgeon, Surgical Department for the Coordination of Donation of Organs and (or) Human Tissues</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пашков</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pashkov</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Антон Николаевич Пашков, врач-хирург Центра хирургии и трансплантологии</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anton N. Pashkov, Surgeon, Surgery and Transplantation Center</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лукьянчикова</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lukianchikova</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Анна Сергеевна Лукьянчикова, лаборант лаборатории новых хирургических технологий, врач-ординатор Центра хирургии и трансплантологии</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anna S. Lukianchikova, Laboratory Assistant, Laboratory of New Surgical Technologies; Resident, Surgery and Transplantation Center</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4967-1588</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Муктаржан</surname><given-names>М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Muktarzhan</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Марлен Муктаржан, врач-хирург хирургического отделения по координации донорства органов и (или) тканей человека</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Marlen Muktarzhan, Surgeon, Surgical Department for the Coordination of Donation of Organs and (or) Human Tissues</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-163X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Губарев</surname><given-names>К. К.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gubarev</surname><given-names>K. K.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Константин Константинович Губарев, д-р мед. наук, заведующий хирургическим отделением координации донорства органов и (или) тканей человека</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Konstantin K. Gubarev, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Head of the Surgical Department for the Coordination of Donation of Organs and (or) Human Tissues</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8391-5211</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сюткин</surname><given-names>В. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Syutkin</surname><given-names>V. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Евгеньевич Сюткин, д-р мед. наук, профессор кафедры хирургии с курсами онкохирургии, эндоскопии, хирургической патологии, клинической трансплантологии и органного донорства Медико-биологического университета инноваций и непрерывного образования</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Vladimir E. Syutkin, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor of the Surgery Department with the Courses of Oncology, Anesthesiology and Resuscitation, Endoscopy, Surgical Pathology, Clinical Transplantation and Organ Donation, the Medical and Biological University of Innovation and Continuing Education</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-5945</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Артемьев</surname><given-names>А. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Artemyev</surname><given-names>A. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Алексей Игоревич Артемьев, канд. мед. наук, заведующий хирургическим отделением № 2 Центра хирургии и трансплантологии</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexey I. Artemyev, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Head of Surgical Department No. 2, Surgery and Transplantation Center</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-5398</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Восканян</surname><given-names>С. Э.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Voskanyan</surname><given-names>S. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сергей Эдуардович Восканян, чл.-корр. РАН, проф., д-р мед. наук, заместитель главного врача по хирургической помощи – руководитель Центра хирургии и трансплантологии ФГБУ ГНЦ ФМБЦ им. А.И. Бурназяна</p><p>123098, Москва, ул. Маршала Новикова, д. 23</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sergey E. Voskanyan, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Prof., Dr. Sci. (Med.), Deputy Chief Physician for Surgical Care – Head of Surgery and Transplantation Center</p><p>23, Marshal Novikov St., Moscow 123098</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ ГНЦ ФМБЦ им. А.И. Бурназяна ФМБА России</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>State Research Center – Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day><month>09</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>312</fpage><lpage>333</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Сушков А.И., Попов М.В., Рудаков В.С., Светлакова Д.С., Пашков А.Н., Лукьянчикова А.С., Муктаржан М., Губарев К.К., Сюткин В.Е., Артемьев А.И., Восканян С.Э., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сушков А.И., Попов М.В., Рудаков В.С., Светлакова Д.С., Пашков А.Н., Лукьянчикова А.С., Муктаржан М., Губарев К.К., Сюткин В.Е., Артемьев А.И., Восканян С.Э.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sushkov A.I., Popov M.V., Rudakov V.S., Svetlakova D.S., Pashkov A.N., Lukianchikova A.S., Muktarzhan M., Gubarev K.K., Syutkin V.E., Artemyev A.I., Voskanyan S.E.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.jtransplantologiya.ru/jour/article/view/792">https://www.jtransplantologiya.ru/jour/article/view/792</self-uri><abstract><p>Актуальность. Риск ранней утраты трансплантата определяет особенности и план анестезиологического пособия, интенсивной терапии и, в целом – целесообразность выполнения пересадки печени. Различные прогностические модели и критерии получили широкое распространение за рубежом, однако до настоящего времени не были валидированы российскими центрами трансплантации.Цель. Оценить применимость и точность наиболее распространенных моделей, прогнозирующих риски раннего неблагоприятного исхода трансплантации печени от посмертного донора.Материал и методы. В ретроспективное одноцентровое исследование включены данные о 131 трансплантации печени посмертного донора, выполненной последовательно в период с мая 2012 г. по январь 2023 г. Для каждого наблюдения рассчитаны индексы DRI, SOFT, D-MELD, BAR, MEAF, L-GrAFT, EASE, ABC, проверено соответствие критериям ранней дисфункции EAD. В зависимости от возможности расчета показателей и их значений по отношению к известным точкам отсечения сформированы исследуемые группы, для которых рассчитаны 1-, 3-, 6- и 12-месячная выживаемость трансплантатов. Проведено сравнение прогноза с реально наступившими исходами, рассчитаны чувствительность, специфичность, F1-score и C-index.Результаты. При оценке риска 1- и 3-месячной утраты трансплантата модели, учитывающие только предоперационные параметры, продемонстрировали относительно невысокую прогностическую значимость: DRI (F1-score: 0,16; C-index: 0,54), SOFT (F1-score: 0,42; C-index: 0,64), D-MELD (F1-score: 0,30; C-index: 0,58), BAR (F1-score: 0,23; C-index: 0,57). Послеоперационные индексы MEAF (F1-score: 0,44; C-index: 0,74) и L-GrAFT (F1-score: 0,32; C-index: 0,65) были применимы для 96%, ABC (F1-score: 0,29; C-index: 0,71) – для 91%, EASE (F1-score: 0,26; C-index: 0,80) – для 89% случаев. Относительный риск утраты трансплантата в течение 30 дней при развитии ранней дисфункции, соответствующей критериям EAD cоставил 5,2 (95%ДИ: 3,4–8,1; p&lt;0,0001), F1-score: 0,64; C-index: 0,84. Использование локально установленных граничных значений для шкал SOFT (11 баллов) и L-GrAFT (-0,87) повысило их прогностическую значимость: F1-score: 0,46 и 0,63, С-index: 0,69 и 0,87 соответственно.Выводы. Рассмотренные модели могут применяться для оценки рисков ранней утраты трансплантата печени, однако их прогностическая значимость невысока. Разработка собственной модели в рамках многоцентрового российского исследования, а также поиск новых объективных методов оценки состояния донорской печени представляются перспективными направлениями будущих работ.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Rationale. The risk of early graft loss determines the specifics and plan of anesthesiological assistance, intensive therapy, and overall the feasibility of liver transplantation. Various prognostic models and criteria have become widespread abroad; however, Russian transplant centers have not yet validated them.Objective. To evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the most common models predicting the risks of early adverse outcomes in liver transplantation from deceased donors.Material and methods. A retrospective single-center study included data on 131 liver transplantations from deceased donors performed between May 2012 and January 2023. For each observation, DRI, SOFT, D-MELD, BAR, MEAF, L-GrAFT, and EASE indices were calculated, and compliance with an early allograft dysfunction criteria was verified. Depending on the possibility of calculating the indicators and their values relative to known cutoff points, the study groups were formed, and 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month graft survival rates were calculated. The forecast was compared with the actual outcomes, and sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and C-index were calculated.Results. When assessing the risk of 1- and 3-month graft loss, models using only preoperative parameters demonstrated relatively low prognostic significance: DRI (F1-score: 0.16; C-index: 0.54), SOFT (F1-score: 0.42; C-index: 0.64), D-MELD (F1-score: 0.30; C-index: 0.58), and BAR (F1-score: 0.23; C-index: 0.57). Postoperative indices of MEAF (F1- score: 0.44; C-index: 0.74) and L-GrAFT (F1-score: 0.32; C-index: 0.65) were applicable in 96%, those of ABC (F1-score: 0.29; C-index: 0.71) in 91%, and EASE (F1-score: 0.26; C-index: 0.80) in 89% of cases. The relative risk of 30-days graft loss in case of EAD was 5.2 (95% CI: 3.4-8.1; p&lt;0.0001), F1-score: 0.64, and C-index: 0.84. Using locally established cutoff values for SOFT (11 points) and L-GrAFT (-0.87) scores increased their prognostic significance: F1-score: 0.46 and 0.63, C-index: 0.69 and 0.87, respectively.Conclusion. The analyzed models can be used to assess the risks of early liver graft loss; however, their prognostic significance is not high. Developing a new model in a multicenter Russian study, as well as searching for new objective methods to assess the state of the donor liver are promising directions for future work.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>трансплантация печени</kwd><kwd>выживаемость трансплантата</kwd><kwd>прогностические модели</kwd><kwd>ранняя дисфункция трансплантата</kwd><kwd>первично нефункционирующий трансплантат</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>liver transplantation</kwd><kwd>graft survival</kwd><kwd>prognostic models</kwd><kwd>early allograft dysfunction</kwd><kwd>primary non-function graft</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ivanics T, Wallace D, Abreu P, Claasen MPAW, Callaghan C, Cowling T, et al. 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